Ulbrich Economic Update - Number 59 (April 2025)
Download the 17 page Economic Update for the full details of recent economic trends impacting all industries across the globe, as well as the spring PMA Triannual Report which provides a snapshot of the latest association activities and member benefits. Continue for the Executive Summary.
The Americas
U.S. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY CONTRACTED in March, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0 from 50.3 in February, as new orders, production, and employment all declined. Manufacturing output dipped 0.1% in February, led by weakness in durable goods. Consumer confidence slipped further in March, with the Conference Board’s Expectations Index dropping to 73.8 and the Present Situation Index declining to 151.0. Durable goods orders rose 1.4% in February, driven by a 3.3% gain in transportation equipment, while core capital goods orders were flat.
The Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.2% in February, marking its 23rd decline in the last 24 months, signaling continued economic softness. Inflationary pressures persisted, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.4% in February and 3.2% over the past year, while the Producer Price Index increased 0.6% month-over-month, led by energy and goods. Retail sales edged up 0.2% in February, supported by gains in gasoline and restaurant spending, but several core categories declined. Consumer spending rose 0.8%, while personal income increased 0.3% and the personal savings rate fell to 3.6%. New single-family home sales dropped 0.3% in February as high mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand, while existing home sales rebounded 9.5%. Construction spending increased 0.7% in February, with residential investment rising 0.7% and nonresidential remained flat. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March, including 29,000 in manufacturing, while the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8% and wage growth remained moderate at 0.3% month-over-month.
Overseas
EUROPE UNVEILED A STEEL ACTION PLAN including import cuts and CBAM reforms, while Jaguar Land Rover paused U.S. exports due to tariffs. China, India, and Turkey now dominate Russian fuel imports, replacing the EU. In Asia, Hyundai announced a $5.8B steel mill in Louisiana, Toyota Tsusho acquired Radius Recycling, and Indonesia ranked highest globally for consumer demand for eco-friendly packaging.
Steel Industry Updates
U.S. STEEL SUPPLY SURGED in January to a 26-month high, driven by a 26% increase in imports. February shipments declined month-over-month and year-over-year, with Nucor and U.S. Steel both forecasting weaker Q1 earnings. Cliffs plans to idle mining and steelmaking operations due to weak demand and oversupply, while Worthington Steel anticipates modest Q4 gains, aided by price increases and improving demand in autos and construction.
Automotive Trends
THE U.S. IMPLEMENTED 25% TARIFFS on all imported vehicles and parts, disrupting global supply chains and triggering production pauses by Stellantis and Audi. Automakers in Japan, Mexico, Germany, and South Korea face increased costs. February auto assemblies rose slightly from January but remained 11% below last year, and Stellantis will furlough 900 U.S. workers as the industry braces for further disruptions.
Metals & Commodities
U.S. TRADE AUTHORITIES LAUNCHED INVESTIGATIONS into dumped chassis from Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam, citing dumping margins up to 305%. Ivory Coast cut cocoa export contracts amid a second year of weak output, while Chevron faces steep penalties in Louisiana. India and the U.S. are negotiating to reduce high Indian tariffs on American goods, potentially affecting $23B in trade.
Energy Sector News
RENEWABLE CAPACITY IN THE U.S. reached 359 GW in 2024, with solar additions setting new records and battery storage nearly doubling. LNG investment surged with Stonepeak’s $5.7B deal in Louisiana, while Chevron was ordered to pay $740M in environmental damages. India and China led plastic recycling progress globally, and Australia committed $47B to defense energy infrastructure.
Medical Insights
NIGERIA LAUNCHED AN EMERGENCY VACCINATION CAMPAIGN after receiving over 1 million meningitis vaccine doses from a global stockpile, aiming to contain an outbreak that has claimed more than 70 lives. Bayer renewed its petition to the U.S. Supreme Court to limit Roundup cancer claims, facing 67,000 pending lawsuits. The IFC committed $100M to expand Africa’s digital health infrastructure via data centers, while demand for medical technology remains strong across developing markets.
Aerospace Developments
AMAZON PLANS TO LAUNCH 27 SATELLITES to kick off its $10B Kuiper constellation. United Airlines received FAA approval for its first Starlink-equipped aircraft and will begin service in May, aiming to retrofit all 300 Embraer 175s by yearend. China launched 30 vehicle-to-grid pilot programs using EVs to support its power grid, and Air India is in talks to order 50 more widebody jets amid surging international demand.
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